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Gold Expert
Gold started October a touch higher after a rough September, while palladium lagged. Markets are sorting softer inflation against a firm dollar and still-high yields ahead of Friday's jobs report.
Spot Summary (Intraday)
| Thu Oct 1, 2026 | Gold (USD/oz) | Silver (USD/oz) | Platinum (USD/oz) | Palladium (USD/oz) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prior close (Wed.) | $4,157.12 | $60.43 | $1,717.40 | $1,206.75 |
| Open | $4,157.12 | $60.43 | $1,717.40 | $1,206.75 |
| Latest (intraday, ~3:25 AM PT) | $4,165.22 | $60.66 | $1,713.78 | $1,186.22 |
| Day's high so far | $4,192.99 | $61.43 | $1,736.58 | $1,221.98 |
| Day's low so far | $4,139.43 | $59.97 | $1,697.38 | $1,179.61 |
| $ change | +$8.10 | +$0.23 | −$3.62 | −$20.53 |
| % change | +0.19% | +0.37% | −0.21% | −1.70% |
| Gold/silver ratio | ~68.7 |
Source: Investing.com spot quotes as of about 3:25 AM PT (6:25 AM ET), cross-checked against Trading Economics. Investing.com's spot feed uses the prior close as the open. Feeds differ slightly.
What's Moving Metals Today
A quieter open after a tough September. Spot gold fell about 6% in September, its biggest monthly drop since June, after the Fed's Sept. 16 hike and higher yields, Investing.com reported. Thursday's early tape was firmer for gold and silver, with platinum little changed and palladium down about 1.7%.
Softer PCE cut October hike odds. Wednesday's PCE price index rose 0.3% in August (vs. 0.4% expected) and core PCE rose 0.2%, Reuters and Investing.com reported. Headline PCE was 3.4% year over year. Markets now price roughly a 34–38% chance of an October Fed hike, down from near 70% earlier in the week (CME FedWatch via Investing.com / Trading Economics). December hike odds remain elevated.
Dollar and yields still bite. The U.S. dollar index was up about 0.3% near 101.79 early Thursday, Investing.com said. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Treasury yields remain near multi-decade highs even as oil has eased at times on Middle East flow headlines, per Trading Economics.
Jobs week continues. Today's calendar includes weekly jobless claims and the ISM manufacturing PMI. Friday brings September nonfarm payrolls (consensus near 89,000; unemployment 4.1%, Investing.com). Geopolitics: Iran said it received a U.S. response on a Gulf ceasefire proposal after President Trump rejected an earlier offer (Reuters).
What the Big Banks Expect
We found no new top-ten bank gold forecasts overnight. The views below are the banks', not ours; dates show when each was published, and several predate the Fed's Sept. 16 hike.
- Goldman Sachs (Sept. 18): Cut its end-2026 gold fair-value estimate to $4,650 from $4,900 but kept $5,400 for end-2027 (Investing.com).
- UBS (Sept. 17): Sees gold at $4,600 by December, $5,000 by March 2027 and $5,400 by September 2027 (Investing.com).
- Morgan Stanley (Aug. 20): Sees "a path to >$5,000/oz in 2027 but with scope for volatility too" (Investing.com).
- HSBC (July 9): Expects a $3,800–$4,700 range for the rest of 2026 and a year-end price of $4,750 (Reuters).
- Bank of America (July 7): Forecasts a 2026 average of $4,360 but sees $5,000 in reach once Fed tightening ends (Reuters).
- J.P. Morgan: Sees gold averaging $4,500 in Q4 (Reuters, July 3), and silver averaging $63 in Q4 with the gold/silver ratio moving toward 70 (J.P. Morgan Global Research, Aug. 13).
- Citi (Aug. 12): Silver targets of $75 over 0–3 months and $90 over 6–12 months (Investing.com).
What Major Refiners See
Dated outlooks from major refiners (their views, not ours):
- Heraeus (2026 forecast): Gold $3,750–$5,000/oz; silver $43–$62/oz; platinum $1,300–$1,800/oz; palladium $950–$1,500/oz, with consolidation early in 2026 before a possible gold-led resume (Heraeus Precious Metals).
- MKS PAMP (Jan. 2026 outlook): Base-case 2026 averages of gold $4,500, silver $65, platinum $2,000 and palladium $1,900/oz (MKS PAMP).
- Johnson Matthey (May 14, 2026 PGM report): Platinum expected to remain in deficit in 2026; palladium could record a small surplus as auto demand softens (Johnson Matthey).
What to Watch
- Today (Thu., Oct. 1): weekly jobless claims and ISM manufacturing PMI; Fed speakers on the calendar (Investing.com).
- Fri., Oct. 2: September nonfarm payrolls (consensus ~89,000; unemployment 4.1%).
- Oil and the Gulf: energy prices and ceasefire headlines continue to shape inflation and rate bets.
- Oct. 27–28: the next FOMC meeting.
FAQ
Why isn't gold rallying harder after softer inflation?
Softer PCE helped cool October hike odds, but a firmer dollar and still-high Treasury yields keep a lid on bullion. Friday's jobs report is the next big test.
What is the gold/silver ratio right now?
About 68.7 intraday, meaning one ounce of gold buys roughly 69 ounces of silver.
Is the spot price what I'll pay for coins and bars?
No. Spot is the wholesale benchmark; physical products carry a premium over it.
Shop or Sell at Camino Coin Company
Buying or selling? Browse gold bars, silver bullion, platinum, palladium, U.S. silver coins and silver rounds, or see how to sell to us. Visit our Menlo Park store at 846 Santa Cruz Avenue, Menlo Park, CA 94025 (Monday–Friday, 8:30 a.m.–4 p.m.), call 650-348-3000, or toll-free 800-348-8001.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Prices change constantly. Forecasts are third-party opinions, not guarantees. Consult a qualified advisor before investing.
