Published by
Gold Expert
Gold and silver both recovered on Tuesday after Monday's sharp sell-off, with gold leading.
Spot Summary
| Tue Sep 29, 2026 | Gold (USD/oz) | Silver (USD/oz) |
|---|---|---|
| Open | $4,115.00 | $60.64 |
| Latest (NY close, 2:00 PM PT) | $4,182.45 | $61.47 |
| Day's high | $4,185.23 | $61.53 |
| Day's low | $4,113.68 | $60.30 |
| $ change | +$67.45 | +$0.83 |
| % change | +1.64% | +1.37% |
| Gold/silver ratio | ~68.0 |
Source: Investing.com spot quotes as of 2:00 PM PT, cross-checked against Trading Economics. Feeds differ slightly.
What Moved Metals Today
A rebound after a rough Monday. Gold fell nearly 4% on Monday to its lowest level since Aug. 5, pressured by a higher dollar, rising Treasury yields and energy prices, according to Reuters (via CNBC). Silver fell more than 5%, per Trading Economics. Oil had climbed after President Trump rejected Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. On Tuesday, dip buyers came back.
Weak U.S. data. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 81.9 in September from 88.6 in August. CNBC noted that was well below the Dow Jones consensus of 89 and the lowest reading since 2014. August JOLTS job openings slipped to 7.08 million, below the 7.2 million economists expected, per CNBC. Gold was up about 1.1% before the reports (Reuters) and finished up 1.6%.
Oil eased, and hike bets cooled. Brent crude fell 2.6% to $102.59 and WTI dropped to $89.38 as Saudi exports from Red Sea ports recovered, CNBC reported. October rate-hike odds were near 70% on the CME FedWatch Tool early in the day (Reuters). Traders then pared those bets to about even after New York Fed President John Williams said there was "no need for urgency," according to Reuters. Fed Governor Michael Barr, however, said further hikes are likely to be needed (Reuters). The 10-year Treasury yield stayed near 5.25%, and the 30-year briefly topped 5.6%, its highest since 2002, per CNBC.
What the Big Banks Expect
Bank forecasts vary widely, and several were set before the Fed's Sept. 16 rate hike. The views are the banks', not ours; dates show when each was published.
- Goldman Sachs (Sept. 18): Cut its end-2026 gold fair-value estimate to $4,650 from $4,900 but kept its $5,400 target for end-2027. It said Fed hikes should slow the rally, not end it (investingLive).
- UBS (Sept. 17): Sees gold at $4,600 by December, $5,000 by March 2027 and $5,400 by September 2027 (Investing.com).
- Morgan Stanley (Aug. 20): Said gold reached its $4,450 Q4 forecast early and sees "a path to >$5,000/oz in 2027 but with scope for volatility too" (Investing.com).
- Deutsche Bank (Aug. 6): Forecasts $4,600 for Q4 2026 and sees fair value near $4,700 by year-end (Exchange Rates UK).
- HSBC (July 9): Expects a $3,800–$4,700 trading range for the rest of 2026 and a year-end price of $4,750 (Reuters).
- Bank of America (July 7): Cut its 2026 average gold forecast to $4,360 but still sees $5,000 in reach once the Fed's tightening cycle ends (Reuters).
- J.P. Morgan: Sees gold averaging $4,500 in Q4 (Reuters, July 3). On silver, it forecasts a $63 Q4 average and expects the gold/silver ratio to move toward 70 in the second half of 2026 (J.P. Morgan Global Research, Aug. 13).
- Citi (Aug. 12): Kept silver targets of $75 over 0–3 months and $90 over 6–12 months, citing an expected recovery in investment demand (Investing.com).
What to Watch
- Wed., Sept. 30: August PCE inflation (with annual revisions), the ADP jobs report, final Q2 GDP, and remarks from Fed officials Barkin, Cook and Kashkari.
- Fri., Oct. 2: September nonfarm payrolls.
- Oil and the Strait of Hormuz: oil headlines have been driving rate expectations.
- Oct. 27–28: the next FOMC meeting.
- China's Golden Week and central bank buying. China's central bank added roughly 20 tonnes of gold in August, extending its buying streak to 22 months, Investing.com reported.
FAQ
Why did gold rise today if the Fed may hike rates?
Gold was bouncing from a seven-week low. Weaker consumer confidence and job openings, lower oil prices, and cooler bets on an October hike gave buyers a reason to step in.
What is the gold/silver ratio right now?
About 68. That means one ounce of gold buys roughly 68 ounces of silver.
Is the spot price what I'll pay for coins and bars?
No. Spot is the wholesale benchmark; physical products carry a premium over it.
Shop or Sell at Camino Coin Company
Buying or selling? Browse gold bars, silver bullion, U.S. silver coins and silver rounds, or see how to sell to us. You can also visit our Menlo Park store at 846 Santa Cruz Ave, Menlo Park, CA or call 650-348-3000.
This article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Prices change constantly. Forecasts are third-party opinions, not guarantees. Consult a qualified advisor before investing.
